NVDA

# NVDA Deep Analysis -- February 25, 2026

## Price & Market Position

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| **Close** | $195.56 (+1.41% today) |
| **Market Cap** | $4.75 Trillion |
| **52W Range** | ~$86.62 - $212.18 |
| **Distance from 52W High** | -7.84% |
| **YTD Performance** | +4.86% |
| **1-Year Performance** | +54.43% |
| **Analyst Target** | $260.42 (+33% upside) |
| **Analyst Rating** | 1.32 (Strong Buy) |
| **Beta** | 2.32 |

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## Earnings -- Consistent Beat Streak

NVDA reported earnings on Feb 25, 2026 (after hours). All four recent quarters beat estimates:

| Quarter | Actual EPS | Estimate | Surprise |
|---------|-----------|----------|----------|
| Q4 FY2026 (Jan '26) | $1.62 | $1.56 | **+3.74%** |
| Q3 FY2026 (Oct '25) | $1.30 | $1.27 | +1.99% |
| Q2 FY2026 (Jul '25) | $1.05 | $1.03 | +2.13% |
| Q1 FY2026 (Apr '25) | $0.96 | $0.95 | +0.83% |

EPS accelerated from $0.96 to $1.62 over four quarters -- **69% sequential growth** in one fiscal year.

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## Income Statement (Quarterly Trend)

| Metric | Oct 2024 | Jan 2025 | Apr 2025 |
|--------|----------|----------|----------|
| **Revenue** | $35.08B | $39.33B (+12%) | $44.06B (+12%) |
| **Gross Income** | $26.16B | $28.72B (+10%) | $26.67B (-7%) |
| **Net Income** | $19.31B | $22.09B (+14%) | $18.78B (-15%) |
| **EPS (Diluted)** | $0.78 | $0.89 (+15%) | $0.76 (-15%) |
| **EBITDA** | $22.35B | $24.58B (+10%) | -- |

Revenue continues its steady 12% QoQ climb, but the Apr 2025 quarter showed **margin compression** -- COGS jumped 64% QoQ while revenue only grew 12%. This is likely tied to Blackwell GPU ramp-up costs. Gross margin dipped below 61% from the ~73% range. Worth monitoring -- if margins don't recover as Blackwell scales, it pressures the earnings growth story.

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## Balance Sheet (Jan 2025)

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Total Assets | $111.6B (+16% QoQ) |
| Cash & ST Investments | $43.21B |
| Total Current Assets | $80.13B |
| Total Liabilities | $42.25B |
| Shareholders' Equity | $118.9B |
| Retained Earnings | $107.91B |
| Current Ratio | 4.47 |
| Debt/Equity | 0.09 |

Fortress balance sheet. $43B in cash against minimal debt (D/E of 0.09). The 4.47x current ratio means NVDA could absorb significant capex expansion or make large acquisitions without stress.

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## Valuation

| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|--------|-------|----------------|
| **P/E** | 48.44 | Premium, but... |
| **Forward P/E** | 19.22 | ...very reasonable on forward earnings |
| **PEG** | 0.59 | **Undervalued** relative to growth (PEG < 1) |
| **P/S** | 25.39 | High, reflects margin strength |
| **P/FCF** | 61.46 | Elevated, capex-heavy phase |
| **EPS Growth Next 5Y** | 32.84%/yr | Justifies the premium |

The PEG ratio of **0.59** is the standout. At a trailing P/E of 48 and forward growth of 33%+, the stock is arguably cheap relative to its growth trajectory. The forward P/E of 19.2 is lower than the S&P 500 average -- remarkable for the fastest-growing mega-cap.

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## Profitability & Efficiency

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| **ROA** | 77.15% |
| **ROE** | 107.36% |
| **ROIC** | 77.27% |
| **Gross Margin** | 70.05% |
| **Operating Margin** | 58.84% |
| **Net Profit Margin** | 53.01% |

Exceptional across the board. A 53% net margin on $130B+ annualized revenue is nearly unprecedented at this scale. ROE above 100% and ROA above 77% indicate extraordinarily efficient capital deployment.

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## Technical Analysis

| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|-----------|-------|--------|
| **RSI(14)** | 61.0 | Neutral-bullish (not overbought) |
| **MACD** | 1.88 vs signal 0.86 | **Bullish** (positive crossover, histogram expanding) |
| **Price vs SMA20** | +4.34% above | Bullish |
| **Price vs SMA50** | +5.19% above | Bullish |
| **Price vs SMA200** | +10.85% above | Strong uptrend |
| **Bollinger Band** | Near upper ($198.83) | Approaching overbought zone |
| **Momentum(10)** | +3.72 | Positive and steady |
| **Momentum(20)** | +3.73 | Sustained upward momentum |

All moving averages stacked bullishly (price > EMA20 > EMA50 > EMA200). MACD histogram expanding, confirming accelerating upward momentum. RSI at 61 still has room before overbought (70+). Price approaching upper Bollinger Band, suggesting short-term resistance near $199.

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## Key Risks

1. **Margin compression** -- Apr 2025 quarter saw gross margin drop sharply. If Blackwell ramp costs persist or yields disappoint, the 70%+ gross margin narrative weakens.
2. **Valuation concentration** -- At $4.75T, NVDA is one of the largest companies on earth. The law of large numbers makes sustained 30%+ growth increasingly difficult.
3. **Beta of 2.32** -- In any broad market sell-off, NVDA will amplify losses roughly 2.3x.
4. **Customer concentration** -- Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) represent a large chunk of revenue. Any slowdown in AI capex spending directly hits NVDA.
5. **Export controls** -- Ongoing US-China restrictions limit the addressable market for high-end GPUs.

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## Peers

AVGO, AMD, QCOM, MU, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, MPWR

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## Dividends

Token dividend of $0.01/quarter (~0.02% yield). NVDA is a growth story, not an income play. Dividend has been flat at $0.01 since June 2024 (post-split).

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## Summary

NVDA is in a powerful position -- dominant AI accelerator market share, fortress balance sheet, staggering profitability, and a PEG of 0.59 that suggests it's still undervalued relative to growth. The Feb 25 earnings beat (+3.7%) extends the consecutive beat streak. The technical picture is cleanly bullish with room to run.

The main watch item is the **gross margin trajectory**. The Apr 2025 quarter showed COGS growing 3x faster than revenue -- if this is a temporary Blackwell ramp effect, it's fine. If it's structural, forward earnings estimates need adjustment. The analyst consensus target of $260 implies 33% upside, and at a forward P/E under 20, the valuation is surprisingly modest for a company growing revenue 60%+ YoY.

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*Data sourced via [Finance CLI](https://github.com/) on February 25, 2026. This is not financial advice.*