Created
February 23, 2016 03:38
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Math for a sample probability of x0
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| let x0 be the skill of team x as 0 (at positions 0 through n - 1) | |
| let y be opponent 1 skill at x - 1 (or n - 1) if negative | |
| let w be opponent 2 skill at (x + 1) % n | |
| P(x0 | x0vy, wvx0) = P(x0) * P(x0vy, wvx0 | x0) / P(x0vY, wvx0) | |
| = P(x0) * P(x0vy | x0) * P(wvx0 | x0) / P(x0vY, Wvx0) | |
| = P(x0) * P(x0vy | x0) * P(wvx0 | x0) / (P(x0) * P(x0vy | x0) * P(wvx0 | x0) | |
| + P(x1) * P(x0vy | x1) * P(wvx1 | x1) | |
| + P(x2) * P(x2vy | x2) * P(wvx2 | x2) | |
| + P(x3) * P(x3vy | x3) * P(wvx3 | x3)) |
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