major

The Rotation You're Missing: Defense & Aerospace Lead While Tech Giants Stumble

January 12, 2026

While most retail investors fixate on the S&P 500 hitting new 52-week highs, a dramatic rotation is underway beneath the surface that could reshape portfolios in the months ahead. The data tells a story of shifting leadership that contradicts the "just buy tech" narrative that has dominated for years.

Defense Contractors: The Stealth Bull Market

The defense sector is experiencing a historic breakout that few are discussing. ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF) relative to SPY has reached its 99th percentile across every timeframe from 52 weeks to 208 weeks—a level of sustained outperformance rarely seen in any sector.

major

┌────────┬──────┬─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┬───────────────────┬──────────────────┐
│ ticker ┆ type ┆ name                                                                ┆ days_since_higher ┆ last_higher_date │
│ ---    ┆ ---  ┆ ---                                                                 ┆ ---               ┆ ---              │
│ str    ┆ str  ┆ str                                                                 ┆ i64               ┆ date             │
╞════════╪══════╪═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╪═══════════════════╪══════════════════╡
│ AD     ┆ CS   ┆ Array Digital Infrastructure, Inc.                                  ┆ 0                 ┆ null             │
│ ALC    ┆ CS   ┆ Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares                                          ┆ 2325              ┆ 2019-04-09       │
│ AUUD   ┆ CS   ┆ Auddia Inc. Common Stock                                            ┆ 0                 ┆ null             │
│ BAP   

major

{
    "$schema": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jsonresume/resume-schema/v1.0.0/schema.json",
    "meta": {
        "theme": "macchiato"
    },
    "basics": {
        "name": "Major Hayden",
        "label": "Linux Engineer & Security Architect",
        "email": "major@example.com",
        "phone": "",

major

{
    "$schema": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jsonresume/resume-schema/v1.0.0/schema.json",
    "meta": {
        "theme": "flat",
    },
    "basics": {
        "name": "Major Hayden",
        "label": "Linux Engineer & Security Architect",
        "email": "major@example.com",
        "phone": "",

major

{
    "$schema": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jsonresume/resume-schema/v1.0.0/schema.json",
    "basics": {
        "name": "Major Hayden",
        "label": "Linux Engineer & Security Architect",
        "email": "major@example.com",
        "phone": "",
        "url": "https://majorhayden.com",
        "summary": "Linux Engineer and Principal Software Engineer with 20+ years of experience in system administration, application development, DevOps, and cybersecurity.",
        "location": {

major

{
    "$schema": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jsonresume/resume-schema/v1.0.0/schema.json",
    "basics": {
        "name": "Major Hayden",
        "label": "Linux Engineer & Security Architect",
        "image": "",
        "email": "major@example.com",
        "phone": "",
        "url": "https://majorhayden.com",
        "summary": "Linux Engineer with skills in database administration, system administration, application development and leadership. Enjoys connecting people with technology solutions that are easy to use, affordable, and sustainable over time. Familiar with, and a huge supporter of, the DevOps culture and how to make it work with a large team in a fast paced environment. Information security has been a key interest, having served as Chief Security Architect leading teams of senior engineers dedicated to increasing security within organizations and for their customers.",

major

//@version=6
indicator(title="SMA vs VWMA (thetanerd) 🤓", shorttitle="SMA/VWMA 🤓", overlay=true, timeframe="", timeframe_gaps=true)

// MarketSurge colors by default, just because.
defaultSMAColor = color.new(#e040fb, 0)
defaultVWMAColor = color.new(#2962ff, 0)

// CONFIGURABLES
var GRP0 = "Let's get nerdy because why not? 🤓"
len = input.int(50, minval=1, title="Length", group=GRP0)

major

# TradingView embed testing

<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->
<div class="tradingview-widget-container" style="height:100%;width:100%">
  <div class="tradingview-widget-container__widget" style="height:calc(100% - 32px);width:100%"></div>
  <div class="tradingview-widget-copyright"><a href="https://www.tradingview.com/" rel="noopener nofollow" target="_blank"><span class="blue-text">Track all markets on TradingView</span></a></div>
  <script type="text/javascript" src="https://s3.tradingview.com/external-embedding/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js" async>
  {
  "autosize": true,
  "symbol": "XLP/SPY",

major

Provides: azure-cli = 2.56.0-1.fc39 python3.12dist(azure-cli) = 2.56 python3dist(azure-cli) = 2.56
Requires(rpmlib): rpmlib(CompressedFileNames) <= 3.0.4-1 rpmlib(FileDigests) <= 4.6.0-1 rpmlib(PartialHardlinkSets) <= 4.0.4-1 rpmlib(PayloadFilesHavePrefix) <= 4.0-1
Requires: ((python3.12dist(azure-cosmos) >= 3 with python3.12dist(azure-cosmos) < 4) with python3.12dist(azure-cosmos) >= 3.0.2) (python3.12dist(azure-appconfiguration) >= 1.1.1 with python3.12dist(azure-appconfiguration) < 1.2) (python3.12dist(azure-batch) >= 14 with python3.12dist(azure-batch) < 14.1) (python3.12dist(azure-datalake-store) >= 0.0.49 with python3.12dist(azure-datalake-store) < 0.1) (python3.12dist(azure-graphrbac) >= 0.60 with python3.12dist(azure-graphrbac) < 0.61) (python3.12dist(azure-loganalytics) >= 0.1 with python3.12dist(azure-loganalytics) < 0.2) (python3.12dist(azure-mgmt-applicationinsights) >= 1 with python3.12dist(azure-mgmt-applicationinsights) < 1.1) (python3.12dist(azure-mgmt-authorization) >= 4 with python3.12dist(a

major

SPX to VVIX correlation

When this closes over zero, watch out for a turnaround in the VIX. It isn't always immediate, but it often precedes a change down the line.

Back month vol versus current