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Prediction Markets — Prioritization Meeting (Feb 18, 2026)

Prioritization Meeting — Feb 18, 2026

The product's core value prop (aggregated market data) has zero real data flowing to the UI. We need to align on data sources before we can prioritize tickets — most are blocked until we decide where the data comes from.

The Data Source Problem

We have two reference projects pulling in opposite directions, and most Linear tickets don't specify their data source. Until we decide, those tickets are blocked.

smart-bet-whisper — API-driven (original Lovable MVP)

The first prototype was API-heavy: real data from external services, transformed and displayed.

Source What It Provides Our Status
Polymarket CLOB API Market events, prices, volume Route exists, UI doesn't consume it
Kalshi API Prediction market events Not started
The Odds API Sports betting odds Not started
Twitter API v2 Sentiment, key figure mentions Not started

Paul's lovable-project (horse racing) — AI-driven

Paul's horse racing project takes a fundamentally different approach: scrape the web → AI generates content → store in DB → display. The data pipeline is Firecrawl + Gemini, not direct API integrations. PR #18 already replicated this pattern for articles using Apify + OpenAI.

prediction-nexus-ai — UI/UX reference only

Zero real APIs. All data is hardcoded. Useful only for understanding the data shapes Paul expects on each page: market cards, trending movers, news, sports picks, social feed.

What we need to decide

These two models aren't mutually exclusive, but we need clarity on which pages use which approach:

  • Market data pages (S-7, S-20, S-11) → API-driven (Polymarket, Kalshi, Odds API)
  • Content pages (S-16, S-19) → AI-generated (already built in PR #18)
  • Some tickets don't specify either — they describe UI but not where the data comes from

Decision Points

1. MVP Scope: Data dashboard or AI content platform?

PR #18 proved the AI article pipeline works. Core product pages still have no real data. Recommend: market data first, content in parallel if bandwidth allows.

2. PR #18: Ship or shelve?

Merge it. The work is done, schema is in place, doesn't conflict with market data work. Unblocks S-16/S-17/S-19 frontend.

3. Missing tickets — create before this meeting ends

The most critical work has no Linear tickets:

  • Market data DB schema (tables, normalization)
  • Kalshi API integration
  • The Odds API integration
  • Data normalization layer
  • React Query hooks (frontend ↔ API)

4. Parallel workstreams (if two devs)

Dev A (Frontend) Dev B (Backend)
S-6, S-5, S-9 (app shell) Market DB schema
S-18 (learn getting started) Polymarket → DB pipeline
S-7, S-20 (when data ready) Kalshi + Odds API
S-16/S-19 (article pages) Data normalization

Ticket → Data Source Map

Not all tickets have clear data sources. That's the blocker.

Ticket What Data Source Status
S-5 Header Auth state Can build now
S-6 Navigation Static routes Can build now
S-9 Footer Static Can build now
S-18 Learn: Getting Started Static/MDX Can build now
S-7 Trending Ticker Polymarket + Kalshi prices Blocked — no data pipeline
S-20 Trending Page Multi-source market data Blocked — no data pipeline
S-11 Alerts Page Market data + user prefs Blocked — no data pipeline, no alerts table
S-16 Strategy Articles AI-generated (articles table) Backend done (PR #18). Missing: public pages.
S-17 Admin Dashboard Articles + users tables POC done (PR #18)
S-19 Article Template Articles table Depends on S-16 pages
S-12 Auth Auth0 ✅ Done

4 can start today. 3 are blocked on market data. 3 are partially done via PR #18. 1 is done.


Recommended Build Order

Phase 1 — App Shell (no data deps, start now): S-6S-5S-9S-18

Phase 2 — Market Data Pipeline (critical path, blocks everything):

  1. DB schema: markets, market_snapshots, market_sources
  2. Wire Polymarket route → DB → React Query hooks
  3. Kalshi API (public, no auth)
  4. The Odds API
  5. Data normalization across sources

Phase 3 — Core Pages (need Phase 2): S-7S-20S-11

Phase 4 — Content Pages (PR #18 continuation): S-16 public pages → S-19 template → S-17 polish


Current State

What Status
Auth (Auth0) Done (S-12)
Database Partial — users, articles, scraped_sources. No market data tables.
Polymarket API Route exists, UI doesn't consume it
Kalshi / Odds API Not started
Article generation Working POC (PR #18)
Admin dashboard Working POC (PR #18)
Global shell Not started (S-5/S-6/S-9)

Data Sources At a Glance

Source Status Have Key?
Polymarket Route exists, not consumed Yes
Kalshi Not started N/A (public)
The Odds API Not started No
OpenAI Working Yes
Apify Working Yes
Auth0 Integrated Yes
Twitter Not started No
PostgreSQL 3 tables, no market data N/A
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