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@fela
fela / manifold_tips.md
Created November 27, 2024 14:55
Manifold tips

Market making in high-volatility market. Most of my profits come from market making in highly volatile markets. When there are polarizing questions, and the market swings back and forth, it's a good time to set limit orders.

Think about when news can come in. Understanding when news might drop is crucial for deciding how long to keep limit orders open. If no meaningful new information is expected, limit orders are relatively safe. If news is likely, be more careful.

Set deadlines on your limit orders. Leaving limit orders open indefinitely makes you vulnerable to adverse selection—your order will fill only when it's a bad deal for you. Always set a deadline.

Understand how news can move the price. News often only moves the price in one direction, while the price may naturally drift the other way over time. For example, in "Will X happen by T?" markets, it's usually safer to put limit orders on YES, but buying NOs means you risk only getting filled if X has already happened. Bye bye mana.

newtype Reader e a = Reader { runReader :: e -> a }
instance Functor (Reader a) where
fmap f (Reader g) = Reader $ f . g
instance Applicative (Reader a) where
pure x = Reader $ \_ -> x
m <*> n = Reader $ \e -> (runReader m e) (runReader n e)
instance Monad (Reader a) where
@eatonphil
eatonphil / functions.c
Last active November 25, 2025 04:01
Introduction to "Fun" C (using GCC)
/**
* This are a collection of examples for C 201.
* These combine concepts you may or may not be
* familiar with and are especially useful for
* students new to C. There is a lot of really
* cool stuff you can do in C without any cool
* languages.
*
* This is file in particular is an introduction
* to fun function usage in C.