MAYA: Hey, so I wanted to ask you about something. I've been seeing all this stuff about ICE raids and deportations under Trump, and I know we disagree on this, but I genuinely want to understand your position. I promise I'll try not to be judgmental, though I might push back a bit. Fair?
ALEX: Yeah, fair enough. What do you want to know?
MAYA: Okay, so basically - what Trump's doing with ICE right now feels really extreme to me. Breaking car windows with kids inside, arresting people at churches, detaining people with no criminal records. It just seems cruel. How do you justify that?
ALEX: I don't love it. I'm not sitting here cheering about families being separated or people being scared. But I think to understand my position, you need to look at what happened under Biden first.
MAYA: Okay, I'm listening.
ALEX: So under Biden, there were over 10 million border encounters in four years. That's unprecedented. And I know what you're going to say - "encounters aren't the same as people entering." But here's the thing: of those encounters, only about 2.8 million were removed or expelled. Another 2.5 million were released into the country. And that's just the official numbers.
MAYA: Right, but those people were mostly given court dates for asylum hearings. They were being processed through the legal system.
ALEX: Were they though? The system is so backlogged that those court dates are years away. And in the meantime, they're here. But more importantly, I don't think those numbers tell the whole story.
MAYA: What do you mean?
ALEX: I think the real number of people who entered is way higher. Like, 10 to 20 million higher.
MAYA: Wait, what? That's way more than any estimate I've seen. Pew Research says the unauthorized population increased by about 3 million during Biden's term.
ALEX: Right, and how do they calculate that?
MAYA: They use census data and surveys, I think. The American Community Survey.
ALEX: Exactly. Surveys. You're asking people who are here illegally, who are actively trying to avoid detection, to honestly report their status on a government survey. Does that seem like it would give you accurate numbers?
MAYA: I mean... I guess that's a fair point. But these are statisticians who know how to adjust for undercounting.
ALEX: Maybe under normal circumstances. But think about what the incentives were. The Biden administration made it clear from day one that the border wasn't a priority. Word spread throughout Central and South America that this was the time to come. You had 10.8 million encounters, plus 2 million known "gotaways" - people they detected but didn't catch. Plus an unknown number they never detected at all. And many people tried multiple times until they got through.
MAYA: But the government tracks this stuff.
ALEX: Does it? You're talking about a population that lives completely under the radar. My dad went with someone to their "bank" one time - it was a check-cashing place. No bank accounts, paid in cash, multiple families in one house, kids not always in school. These people aren't showing up in any official data because they're specifically trying not to.
MAYA: Okay, but even if I grant you that the number is higher than 3 million - and I'm not sure I do - how does that justify what's happening now? You've got ICE agents in masks breaking into people's homes, detaining people at churches and schools. That's not normal.
ALEX: You're right, it's not normal. And yes, it's more aggressive than what Obama did. But let me ask you this: what's the alternative?
MAYA: How about targeting actual criminals instead of just anyone who's undocumented?
ALEX: Okay, so I looked into this. Under Trump right now, about 73% of people detained have no criminal conviction. Under Biden it was about 47%. So yes, Trump is casting a wider net.
MAYA: Exactly! That's what I'm saying. They're not going after criminals.
ALEX: But here's where I think you're missing something. First, that crime data is complicated. There's this economist John Lott who argues that illegal immigrants actually commit crimes at higher rates than citizens, but they get deported before they show up in prison population data, which skews all the studies.
MAYA: I've heard of him. But isn't his research flawed? I thought he got called out for counting legal immigrants who became deportable as illegal immigrants.
ALEX: Yeah, that criticism exists. But here's the thing - I actually don't care that much about whether they commit more crimes or not.
MAYA: Wait, what? I thought that was the whole point.
ALEX: No, that's what people focus on, but it's not really the issue. Look, even if illegal immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than citizens - and maybe they do - that's not why this enforcement is necessary.
MAYA: Then why is it necessary?
ALEX: Because when you let 10 to 20 million people into the country in four years with no real enforcement, you're essentially telling everyone that immigration law is optional. You're breaking the social contract.
MAYA: But these are people with lives and families here now. Deporting them is cruel.
ALEX: I know. And I genuinely struggle with that. These are real people, not statistics. But think about what you're asking. You're asking the existing population to just accept that the rules don't matter, that if you can get across the border and avoid detection for long enough, you get to stay.
MAYA: I mean, we're a nation of immigrants. That's literally what America is about.
ALEX: Through a legal process, yeah. But what happened under Biden wasn't that. And the thing is, I'm not even particularly passionate about immigration as an issue normally. I'm conservative, but I've never been an "immigration guy."
MAYA: Then why do you support this?
ALEX: Because societies need buy-in from their citizens to function. And when you flood a society with foreigners - and I don't mean that in a mean way, I just mean people from other places - human nature is what it is. Nobody, and I mean nobody anywhere in the world, really likes rapid demographic change. It's just human.
MAYA: That sounds kind of... I don't know, xenophobic?
ALEX: Maybe it is. But it's also true. Even in a country like the US, which is probably the most pro-immigration culture on Earth, there are limits to how fast you can absorb people before you get backlash. It's not a resource problem - we have plenty of resources. It's a social cohesion problem.
MAYA: So you're saying we need to deport millions of people to maintain "social cohesion"?
ALEX: I'm saying that when you break the immigration system as badly as Biden did, you have to do something to restore order. And yes, that means aggressive enforcement. Is it ideal? No. Do I love the tactics? No. But what's the alternative - just accepting that we have no immigration system at all?
MAYA: But the tactics matter! Trump ended the policy that restricted ICE from raiding churches and schools. Obama had that policy, Trump's first term had it, Biden expanded it. Now ICE can arrest people anywhere.
ALEX: True. And that's more aggressive. But look at the context. Under Obama, most arrests happened when ICE took custody of people from local jails. Under Biden, "sanctuary city" policies meant local jails wouldn't cooperate with ICE. So now ICE has to go into communities to find people. That's why you're seeing more confrontational tactics.
MAYA: That doesn't make it okay to break car windows with kids inside!
ALEX: I agree that sounds bad. But I also think you're cherry-picking the worst examples. According to ProPublica, there have been about 50 instances of window-breaking in Trump's second term, compared to 8 in the previous decade. So yes, it's increased. But it's not like it's happening in every arrest.
MAYA: Fifty times is still fifty times too many!
ALEX: Maybe. But here's what I keep coming back to: if you believe, like I do, that 10 to 20 million people entered illegally during Biden's term, what's the proportionate response? Just letting them all stay says the law doesn't matter. Aggressive enforcement at least signals we're serious about borders again.
MAYA: But where are you getting this 10 to 20 million number? That seems insane.
ALEX: Think about the incentives. You've got a 2,000-mile border that's hard to secure. An administration that made it clear they didn't care about enforcement. Word spreading throughout the hemisphere that now's the time to come. Cartels and smugglers capitalizing on it. And a government that had no interest in accurately counting how many people got through.
MAYA: So you're just guessing?
ALEX: I'm applying common sense. When you have 10.8 million encounters, 2 million known gotaways, high rates of people trying multiple times until they succeed, and a population that's specifically trying to avoid being counted - why would you believe it's only 3 million? That requires trusting government statistics about a population the government wasn't even trying to track.
MAYA: Okay, but even if I accepted your numbers - which I don't - comparing this to other countries, the US doesn't have it that bad. Europe deals with immigration too.
ALEX: Europe has less than 1% of their population as unauthorized immigrants. The US has about 3%. And Europe doesn't have a 2,000-mile land border with developing countries.
MAYA: So we're just different?
ALEX: We face a unique challenge, yeah. We're the most prosperous country in the world, right next to much poorer countries, with a massive border that's hard to control. Other wealthy democracies don't have that same geography.
MAYA: Fine, but you know what really bothers me? The data shows that illegal immigrants actually commit crimes at LOWER rates than US citizens. Multiple studies show this. So all this fear-mongering about criminals is just wrong.
ALEX: I've seen those studies. The Texas data shows illegal immigrants are arrested at about half the rate of native-born citizens for violent crimes. I'm not denying that.
MAYA: Then why are you defending policies that treat them like criminals?
ALEX: Because, again, it's not about whether they're criminals. Although I do think there's something to the argument that illegal immigrants get deported before they show up in prison statistics, which makes those studies unreliable. But even setting that aside - the issue isn't crime. It's legitimacy.
MAYA: What do you mean, legitimacy?
ALEX: A country has to control who enters and lives within its borders. That's basic sovereignty. When you lose that control, you lose the trust of your citizens. And when citizens don't trust the system, you get political instability. We're seeing that now.
MAYA: But these policies are causing instability! There are protests everywhere. People are terrified.
ALEX: Because we're trying to restore order after four years of chaos. Yeah, that's going to be disruptive. But what's the alternative? Just accepting that borders are optional?
MAYA: No, but there's got to be a middle ground between open borders and what's happening now.
ALEX: Maybe. But I think you had Biden for four years essentially running that experiment, and it didn't work. Now we're paying the price.
MAYA: You keep saying "paying the price" like this is medicine we have to take. But these aren't diseases or cancers - these are people.
ALEX: You're right, that's a bad analogy. People aren't cancers. But think of it this way: it's like a city that didn't enforce zoning laws for four years. Thousands of unpermitted structures got built. Now you have to enforce the code again, which means some buildings people live in have to come down. It's disruptive and affects real people's lives. But if you don't do it, you've abandoned the concept of zoning entirely.
MAYA: I guess I see what you're saying, but it still feels like you're prioritizing abstract concepts like "order" and "legitimacy" over actual human beings.
ALEX: I know it feels that way. And honestly, I struggle with that too. I don't like that real people with real lives are being hurt by this. But all policies hurt people. The question is whether the alternative is worse.
MAYA: And you think it is?
ALEX: Yeah. Because if we accept that 10 to 20 million people can just walk in and stay, we're not a country with an immigration policy anymore. We're just a place where anyone can show up. And I don't think American citizens will accept that. They're already not accepting it - that's why Trump won.
MAYA: But the number isn't 10 to 20 million! Every expert says it's more like 3 million.
ALEX: Every expert relies on surveys that this population wouldn't answer honestly. Look, my dad literally went with someone to their "bank" - a check-cashing place. These people live completely off the grid. Cash economy, multiple families per house, no official records. How would the Census Bureau even count them?
MAYA: So because you can't prove they're NOT here, you're assuming they are?
ALEX: I'm assuming that when you create massive incentives for people to come, open a border, and then don't seriously try to count or stop them, a lot of people come. That's not conspiracy theory - that's just how incentives work.
MAYA: Okay, but you mentioned earlier that the crime data might be flawed because people get deported before they show up in prison stats. But if that's true, wouldn't that make deportation even worse? You'd be removing people who haven't done anything wrong.
ALEX: Not exactly. The argument is that if someone commits a crime and then gets deported at arrest or conviction, they don't show up in the prison population data that most studies use. So those studies are saying "look, only X% of prisoners are illegal immigrants" when actually the real rate is higher because many were already deported.
MAYA: But that still doesn't justify deporting people who haven't committed crimes.
ALEX: Again, I keep trying to tell you - I'm not primarily concerned with the crime thing. Even if every illegal immigrant was perfectly law-abiding, you'd still have the problem that you've lost control of your borders and your citizens don't trust the system anymore.
MAYA: I just can't accept that "restoring trust" justifies the human cost of mass deportations.
ALEX: And I can't accept that we should just shrug and say "oh well, millions of people came illegally, guess we'll just let them stay." That's not a sustainable system.
MAYA: But it's not like Biden had completely open borders. He deported people too. The data shows Biden actually deported at similar or higher rates than Trump's first term.
ALEX: Only if you count "returns" at the border. Interior removals by ICE were way down. And the returns don't mean much when people just try again and eventually get through.
MAYA: Okay, I feel like we're going in circles. Let me ask you this: what would success look like to you?
ALEX: Honestly? A few years of aggressive enforcement to signal that the rules matter again. The unauthorized population goes down. Border crossings stay low. And then maybe we can have a rational conversation about immigration reform. But you can't have that conversation when the system is completely broken.
MAYA: And you don't care that thousands or millions of people's lives get destroyed in the process?
ALEX: I care. I do. But I also think that societies can only absorb change at a certain rate before they break down. It's not about resources - we have enough resources. It's about social capital and cohesion. When you bring in too many people too fast, human nature is what it is. People resist. Even in America, which is probably the most welcoming country on Earth for immigrants.
MAYA: That just sounds like saying "people are racist so we have to deport immigrants."
ALEX: No, I'm saying people everywhere, in every culture, have limits to how much demographic change they can handle at once. That's not racism - it's human nature. You can call it xenophobia if you want, but it's universal. Nobody anywhere actually likes rapid demographic change in their community. That's just reality.
MAYA: I don't know. This still feels really harsh to me.
ALEX: It is harsh. I'm not pretending it's not. But after four years where the border was essentially open and 10-plus million people came through, this is the correction we have to make. It's not ideal. I don't love it. But I don't see another way to restore a functioning immigration system.
MAYA: I guess I just fundamentally disagree that we need to be this cruel to restore "order."
ALEX: And I think that if we're not willing to enforce immigration law, we should just be honest and say we don't believe in having borders at all. But most Americans aren't willing to go that far.
MAYA: Fair enough. I still think you're wrong, but... I appreciate you explaining your position.
ALEX: Same. I know we're not going to agree on this. But at least now you know why I see it the way I do.
MAYA: Yeah. Though I still think your 10 to 20 million number is completely made up.
ALEX: (laughs) And I still think your 3 million number relies on trusting government statistics about people who are hiding from the government.
MAYA: Agree to disagree?
ALEX: Agree to disagree.