Trump's Greenland push triggers NATO's worst crisis in decades; Syria ceasefire collapses within 24 hours: Trump announced 10% tariffs (rising to 25%) on eight NATO allies who deployed troops to Greenland, with EU defense commissioner warning a US invasion would "end NATO." Denmark sent additional troops to Greenland as part of Operation Arctic Endurance. The Syria-SDF ceasefire signed January 18 collapsed within hours—government forces advanced on ISIS prisons in Hasakah, killing 9 SDF fighters and threatening to release 4,500 ISIS detainees. Minneapolis enters "Day of No Work, School, or Shopping" as labor unions escalate ICE protest response. Speaker Johnson addressed UK Parliament in historic first, attempting to "calm waters" even as Trump derided Britain's "stupidity" over Chagos Islands.
The Post:
"BREAKING: NATO leaders issue escalating warnings amid President Trump's aggressive push for Greenland, which threatens to fracture the entire U.S.-NATO alliance." — @WarMonitors, Jan 20
What's Happening:
President Trump announced that NATO countries who sent troops to Greenland will face:
- 10% tariffs on all goods starting February 1
- 25% tariffs starting June 1, until US can purchase Greenland
- Targeted nations: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, Finland
European Response:
- Denmark deployed additional troops to Greenland as part of "Operation Arctic Endurance" alongside 8 NATO allies
- EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius: A US invasion of Greenland would be "the end of NATO" and EU members would be obligated to assist Denmark
- NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte met with Danish Defense Minister and Greenland's Foreign Minister to discuss Arctic security proposals
- Ursula von der Leyen at Davos stressed "unequivocal respect for sovereignty" of Denmark and Greenland
US Domestic Opposition:
- YouGov poll: Only 8% of Americans support Trump's threatened invasion
- Bipartisan congressional delegation traveled to Copenhagen to support Denmark-US relations
- Sens. Tim Kaine (D) and Rand Paul (R) exploring options: new war powers resolution, challenging tariffs, invoking law preventing NATO withdrawal without Congress
Why This Matters for Josh: This is the most serious transatlantic rift in NATO's 75-year history. Trump is using economic coercion against treaty allies over territorial expansion. The EU's explicit statement that invasion would "end NATO" is unprecedented.
Further Reading:
- Trump's quest for Greenland could be NATO's darkest hour - Atlantic Council
- Trump says EU won't 'push back too much' as Denmark sends extra troops - CNBC
- Analysis: Who can save NATO from Trump as he escalates bid to grab Greenland? - CNN
- Greenland crisis - Wikipedia
The Posts:
"This morning, I became the first sitting U.S. Speaker to address the UK Parliament — a profound honor to mark our 250th anniversary in what felt like returning to the spiritual birthplace of our own nation. The deep historical and cultural bond between the U.S. and UK remains foundational." — @SpeakerJohnson, Jan 20
"I spoke to President Trump at length yesterday, and I told him that I really felt that my mission here today was to encourage our friends and help to calm the waters." — @SpeakerJohnson, Jan 20
Context: Speaker Johnson became the first sitting US Speaker to address the British Parliament, marking America's 250th anniversary. He met with UK Prime Minister, Speaker of the House of Commons, and US Ambassador.
The Tension: Even as Johnson spoke, Trump posted on Truth Social deriding Britain's "stupidity" and "total weakness" for agreeing to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius—renewing threats to seize territory from NATO allies.
Johnson's Message:
- "America First" does not mean "America alone"
- US and UK remain bound by durable alliance built on shared values and security interests
- Explicitly stated mission was to "calm the waters"
Why This Matters: Johnson is attempting diplomatic damage control while Trump simultaneously escalates. The dissonance between the Speaker's conciliatory tone and the President's aggression puts allies in an impossible position.
Further Reading:
- Trump slams U.K. 'stupidity' as Speaker Johnson vows to calm tensions - NBC News
- House Speaker Mike Johnson tells British Parliament he came to 'calm the waters' - Fox News
Continuing from Previous Digest:
Latest Developments (Jan 19-20):
Labor Union Strike Call:
Labor unions have called for a "Day of No Work, School, or Shopping" on January 20 as protest escalates. — MPR News
Church Incident Under Investigation:
- Protesters interrupted services at Cities Church in St. Paul chanting "ICE out" and "Justice for Renee Good" on Jan 18
- AG Pam Bondi announced DOJ investigating as potential FACE Act violation (Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act, which also protects religious worship)
Counter-Protest Clash (Jan 17):
- Far-right influencer Jake Lang (pardoned Jan 6 rioter) attempted pro-ICE demonstration
- ~10 supporters vs. hundreds of counter-protesters
- Lang physically assaulted, showing gash on back of head
- Counter-protesters chased supporters to hotel within an hour
Military Status:
- 1,500 active-duty soldiers remain on standby in Alaska for possible deployment
- Minnesota National Guard mobilized by Gov. Walz for traffic support
- DOJ appealing judge's order limiting ICE tactics against peaceful protesters
Why This Matters: The crisis is escalating rather than de-escalating. Labor union coordinated action represents significant expansion beyond protest marches. DOJ's FACE Act investigation of church disruption signals aggressive federal response to dissent.
Further Reading:
- Immigration enforcement in Minnesota: Labor unions call for day of no work - MPR News
- DOJ appealing judge's order limiting ICE agents actions - MPR News
- Anti-ICE rally chases off far-right influencer Jake Lang - Al Jazeera
The Analysis:
"There's a reason Hakan Fidan was at the White House when Sharaa was. Of course the U.S. has backed this play, whatever Graham is tweeting 24 hours after the fact. Trump wants out of Syria." — @michaeldweiss, Jan 19
What Happened:
The 14-point ceasefire signed January 18 collapsed within hours:
Sunday (Jan 18): Agreement signed, SDF to integrate into Syrian government, hand over Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, ISIS prisons, oil fields, border crossings.
Monday (Jan 19-20):
- Syrian government forces advanced into Raqqa and Hasakah provinces
- 9 SDF fighters killed in clashes near Panorama prison in Hasakah
- Prison holds 4,500 ISIS detainees—fighting at its perimeter
- SDF deployed commandos, tanks, armored vehicles to secure prison
- Government troops reportedly reached prison outskirts
The Stakes: If the prison falls or ISIS detainees escape during fighting, it could trigger regional security crisis. The SDF has been primary force guarding ISIS prisoners since caliphate's defeat.
Key Terms of Failed Agreement:
- SDF integration into Syrian military
- Government control of Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, Hasakah
- SDF responsibility for ISIS camps transferred to Damascus
- PKK-affiliated non-Syrians expelled (Turkey's demand)
- Kurdish rights formally recognized (first since 1946)
US Role: Tom Barrack, US special envoy, brokered the deal. Weiss analysis suggests US backing for Turkish-supported offensive because "Trump wants out of Syria."
Further Reading:
- Syria ceasefire collapses: Government and SDF forces clash over ISIS prisons - The Week
- Syrian president to meet SDF leader after ceasefire deal amid new clashes - Al Jazeera
- Syria says ceasefire, full integration deal marks 'new phase' - Anadolu Agency
Hebron Operation:
"Overnight, in the Jabal Johar area in Hebron, security forces began an operation to dismantle terror infrastructure sites, eradicate illegal possession of weapons, and enhance security in the area. The operation is expected to continue for several days." — @IDF, Jan 19
Context: New multi-day counter-terrorism operation in West Bank targeting weapons and terror infrastructure. Signals continued proactive security posture.
Southern Lebanon Strikes:
"STRUCK: Hezbollah terror infrastructure in several areas across southern Lebanon. Targets included military structures used for Hezbollah drills and training, tunnel shafts used to store weapons, launch sites and additional military structures." — @IDF, Jan 19
Assessment: Israel continues targeting Hezbollah despite ceasefire—suggests ongoing violations or preemptive action. Pattern of strikes on training facilities, tunnels, and launch sites indicates sustained pressure on Hezbollah's operational capacity.
The Post:
"AI5 chip design is complete and in good shape, so I've restarted work on Dojo3. Dojo will become a very high volume AI chip compute project. Email jobs@tesla.com if you are interested in working on Dojo with examples of the toughest technical problems you've solved." — @elonmusk, Jan 18
What This Means:
- AI5 complete: Hopper-class single SoC / Blackwell-class dual SoC, as detailed in previous digest
- Dojo3 restarted: Tesla's custom AI training infrastructure project
- Hiring push: Looking for engineers with proven problem-solving track records
Strategic Implication: Tesla moving from chip design to scaling compute infrastructure. If Dojo achieves "very high volume," it competes directly with Nvidia's datacenter dominance while enabling both FSD and Optimus at scale.
The Post:
"We analyzed the internals of three open-weights AI models to map their 'persona space,' and identified what we call the Assistant Axis, a pattern of neural activity that drives Assistant-like behavior." — @AnthropicAI, Jan 19
Key Findings (Detailed in Previous Digest):
- AI personality exists along primary axis: Professional Assistant ↔ Fantastical Characters
- Models drift from Assistant mode in long conversations, especially philosophical/therapy contexts
- Persona-based jailbreaks exploit this drift
- Steering toward Assistant Axis reduced harmful responses across 1,100 jailbreak attempts
Why This Matters: First mechanistic understanding of why AI models "go haywire." Practical safety tool for keeping AI systems stable during deployment.
Further Reading:
- The Assistant Axis: Situating and Stabilizing the Default Persona of Language Models - arXiv
- Anthropic Persona Vectors Research - Anthropic
The Post:
"The modern environment is hostile to your biological health and longevity. I've been building a 'safe haven' through Don't Die—strategies to counteract environmental stressors for optimal biological vibrance." — @bryan_johnson, Jan 20
Philosophy: Blueprint protocol expands beyond personal optimization to systemic critique—framing modern life as actively degrading biology, requiring intentional countermeasures.
The Post:
"We accept economic inflation (slow erosion of currency value) as inevitable. We accept biological aging (slow degradation of bodily functions) the same way. I reject both. Both are solvable problems." — @bryan_johnson, Jan 20
Key Takeaway: Philosophical reframing—aging isn't natural fate but a problem analogous to economic dysfunction. Both require active intervention rather than passive acceptance.
The Post:
"Evidence-based resistance training protocol from Dorian Yates: 6 weeks of intense training (3x per week), followed by 2 weeks of lighter training and periodic full breaks. Applicable to both non-assisted and assisted (TRT) individuals." — @hubermanlab, Jan 20
Protocol Details:
- 6 weeks intense (3x/week) → 2 weeks light → repeat
- Works for natural and TRT-assisted training
- Maximizes stimulus while preventing overtraining
Why Relevant: Yates (6x Mr. Olympia) pioneered High-Intensity Training—minimum volume, maximum effort. Aligns with efficiency-focused optimization: get results without wasted time.
The Post:
"Incredible event at the Ready First Ramadi Memorial Dedication and Reunion in Fort Bliss, El Paso, Texas. Over 1,000 veterans from multiple units, their families, and Gold Star families. Honor, patriotism, and community among those who served." — @jockowillink, Jan 19
Why This Matters: Battle of Ramadi was pivotal Iraq War engagement. 1,000+ veterans gathering underscores lasting bonds forged in combat and importance of honoring sacrifice. Leadership lesson: community sustains resilience beyond the mission.
The Post:
"Aftermath. DEF Reset Workout #20: Toes-to-bar, sit-ups. GUT WORK. GET SOME." — @jockowillink, Jan 20
Pattern: Consistent daily discipline through physical standards. The routine itself is the message—no excuses, execute.
The Post:
"On the show today: Americans divided over ICE action in Minneapolis as protesters ramp up their chaotic behavior; as the US threatens Greenland, geopolitics reshapes the map; and President Trump says it's time for the Iranian regime to go." — @benshapiro, Jan 19
Topics Covered:
- Immigration enforcement vs. protest escalation framing
- Greenland geopolitical implications
- Trump's Iran regime change rhetoric
The Episode:
"They can see all of your messages" — That's not a conspiracy theory. John Kiriakou, former CIA Chief of Counter-Terrorism Operations in Pakistan after 9/11, shares his insider experience. — @StevenBartlett, Jan 19
Why Worth Watching: First-hand CIA perspective on surveillance capabilities, counter-terrorism operations, and whistleblower ethics. Kiriakou was imprisoned for exposing CIA torture program.
-
NATO Crisis Point: If Trump follows through on 25% tariffs by June 1, does NATO survive in its current form? What's the off-ramp? Does US Congress have the will to check presidential overreach on alliance commitments?
-
Syria ISIS Prison Risk: If fighting continues around Panorama prison with 4,500 ISIS detainees, what's the contingency if prisoners escape? Who takes responsibility—US, Turkey, Syria, SDF? Is this the ISIS resurgence scenario everyone feared?
-
Minneapolis Escalation: Labor union strike coordination represents significant escalation. If 1,500 troops deploy, what's the political fallout? Does this become Trump's Kent State moment or does it suppress protest?
-
Speaker Johnson's Impossible Position: Can Johnson credibly represent alliance commitments while Trump actively undermines them? Does this split between executive and legislative foreign policy messaging have precedent?
-
Tesla Compute Independence: If Dojo3 achieves scale, does Tesla become an AI infrastructure company that also makes cars? What's the timeline before they're competitive with Nvidia for external customers?
-
Syria Deal Failure Pattern: The March 2025 SDF-Damascus deal also collapsed. Is there any deal structure that can work, or is military resolution inevitable? What does US withdrawal look like if SDF is absorbed?
filtrd learns from your feedback. Reply to this email with any adjustments—your digest will evolve with each response.
Some ideas:
- "Go deeper on Syria/SDF developments"
- "Less detail on health protocols—just headlines"
- "Start following @PeterZeihan"
- "I don't care about longevity content"
- "More of this, less of that"
- "Too long" or "This is great"
- "What's happening with Ukraine?"
The more you reply, the sharper this gets.