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"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "view-in-github",
"colab_type": "text"
},
"source": [
"<a href=\"https://colab.research.google.com/gist/neoyipeng2018/515f2997e29953a4467cf9be9810914c/openai-vs-opensource.ipynb\" target=\"_parent\"><img src=\"https://colab.research.google.com/assets/colab-badge.svg\" alt=\"Open In Colab\"/></a>"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"# Comparing OpenAI vs Open Source LLMs"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "_UEyHrCiiYHB"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"!pip install -Uqq langchain\n",
"!pip install -Uqq accelerate>=0.12.0 transformers[torch]==4.25.1\n",
"!pip install -Uqq chromadb\n",
"!pip install -Uqq pdfminer.six\n",
"!pip install -Uqq pypdf\n",
"!pip install -Uqq openai"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "MudTeV3WUk0I"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"#for output wrapping\n",
"from IPython.display import HTML, display\n",
"def set_css():\n",
" display(HTML('''\n",
" <style>\n",
" pre {\n",
" white-space: pre-wrap;\n",
" }\n",
" </style>\n",
" '''))\n",
"get_ipython().events.register('pre_run_cell', set_css)"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "4DQ0u1i9gq6B"
},
"execution_count": 12,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"## Using LLMs to analyze and interpret complex economic reports, identifying key data points that could impact macroeconomic trends and influence investment decisions.\n",
"- GS and JPM macro outlook reports for 2023"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "k0N9tM4dU4iU"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"!wget https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/macro-outlook-2023-this-cycle-is-different/report.pdf\n",
"!wget https://assets.jpmprivatebank.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/documents/en/investing/outlook-2023.pdf"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "PFWDSmlqS73F"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"from langchain.document_loaders import PyPDFLoader # for loading the pdf\n",
"from langchain.chains import ChatVectorDBChain # for chatting with the pdf\n",
"from langchain.vectorstores import Chroma # for the vectorization part\n",
"\n",
"from langchain.chains import ConversationalRetrievalChain\n",
"from langchain.embeddings import HuggingFaceEmbeddings\n",
"from langchain.prompts.prompt import PromptTemplate\n",
"from langchain import HuggingFacePipeline\n",
"\n",
"from transformers import pipeline\n",
"import torch\n",
"from langchain.llms import OpenAI\n",
"from langchain.chat_models import ChatOpenAI\n",
"from langchain.embeddings import OpenAIEmbeddings # for creating embeddings"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "K90Fsh1gUunr"
},
"execution_count": 3,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"import os\n",
"os.environ['OPENAI_API_KEY'] = 'xxx'"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "nU9IG_UDiv24"
},
"execution_count": 4,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"pdf_folder_path = ['report.pdf','outlook-2023.pdf']\n",
"\n",
"# location of the pdf file/files. \n",
"loaders = [PyPDFLoader(fn).load_and_split() for fn in pdf_folder_path]\n",
"loader = loaders[0] + loaders[1]\n",
"\n",
"model_name = \"sentence-transformers/all-mpnet-base-v2\"\n",
"model_kwargs = {'device': 'cuda'}\n",
"\n",
"embeddings = HuggingFaceEmbeddings(model_name=model_name, model_kwargs=model_kwargs)\n",
"vectordb = Chroma.from_documents(loader, embeddings)\n",
"\n",
"_template = \"\"\"Given the following conversation and a follow up question, rephrase the follow up question to be a standalone question.\n",
"You can assume the question is about investments in macro environment.\n",
"Chat History:\n",
"{chat_history}\n",
"Follow Up Input: {question}\n",
"Standalone question:\"\"\"\n",
"CONDENSE_QUESTION_PROMPT = PromptTemplate.from_template(_template)\n",
"\n",
"template = \"\"\"You are an AI assistant for answering questions about macro outlooks from bank reports.\n",
"You are given the following extracted parts of a long document and a question. Provide a conversational answer.\n",
"If you don't know the answer, just say \"Hmm, I'm not sure.\" Don't try to make up an answer.\n",
"If the question is not about finance, politely inform them that you are tuned to only answer questions about the macro outlook from banks.\n",
"Question: {question}\n",
"=========\n",
"{context}\n",
"=========\n",
"Answer in Markdown:\"\"\"\n",
"QA_PROMPT = PromptTemplate(template=template, input_variables=[\"question\", \"context\"])"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "mPgGPe-rl5oq"
},
"execution_count": null,
"outputs": []
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"source": [
"## Dolly"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "U75Nuv0KXsH2"
}
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"generate_text = pipeline(model=\"databricks/dolly-v2-12b\", torch_dtype=torch.bfloat16,\n",
" trust_remote_code=True, device_map=\"auto\", return_full_text=True)\n",
"llm = HuggingFacePipeline(pipeline=generate_text)\n",
"\n",
"qa = ConversationalRetrievalChain.from_llm(llm,\n",
" vectordb.as_retriever(),\n",
" condense_question_prompt = CONDENSE_QUESTION_PROMPT,\n",
" qa_prompt = QA_PROMPT,\n",
" return_source_documents=True)"
],
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"data": {
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{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"history = []\n",
"def user(user_message, history):\n",
" # Get response from QA chain\n",
" response = qa({\"question\": user_message, \"chat_history\": history})\n",
" # Append user message and response to chat history\n",
" history.append((user_message, response[\"answer\"]))\n",
"\n",
" print('AI:',response['answer'],'\\n\\n')\n",
" print('Source:',response['source_documents'],'\\n')\n",
"\n",
" return history"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "Pl4jiZ77cltV",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 17
},
"outputId": "bb100681-44ec-495a-bf33-29594962dc0f"
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" }\n",
" </style>\n",
" "
]
},
"metadata": {}
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"history = user('what does JPM think of the macro outlook?',history)"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "Ywq2fQoWZGxX",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 876
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"outputId": "d33ae7bf-5c49-4521-ac10-8634ec1c5178"
},
"execution_count": 40,
"outputs": [
{
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"data": {
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"<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
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" <style>\n",
" pre {\n",
" white-space: pre-wrap;\n",
" }\n",
" </style>\n",
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"text": [
"AI: \n",
"In the past year, US growth has slowed to a below-potential pace of about 1% because of a diminishing reopening boost, declining real disposable income and aggressive monetary tightening. \n",
"\n",
"Our forecasts for 2023 are well above consensus. Unlike a year ago, when our forecast for both 2022 and 2023 was below consensus because we expected a negative impact of monetary and especially fiscal tightening, our current 2023 forecast is well above consensus. \n",
"\n",
"We think that a US recession in the next 12 months is less likely than most other forecasters. Exhibit 3: We think that a US recession in the next 12 months is less likely than most other forecasters. \n",
"\n",
"Why is our recession probability—while more than twice as high as the unconditional probability of entering recession in any given 12-month period—still clearly below 50%? \n",
"\n",
"One immediate reason is that the incoming activity data are nowhere close to recessionary. The advance GDP report showed 2.6% (annualized) growth in Q3, nonfarm payrolls grew 261k in October, and there were 225k initial jobless claims in the week of November 5. \n",
"\n",
"More fundamentally, there are strong reasons to expect \n",
"\n",
"\n",
"Source: [Document(page_content='US Likely to Avoid Recession \\nIn the past year, US growth has slowed to a below-potential pace of about 1% because \\nof a diminishing reopening boost, declining real disposable income (driven by fiscal \\nnormalization and high inflation), and aggressive monetary tightening. In our forecast, growth remains at roughly this pace in 2023. Unlike a year ago, when our forecast for both 2022 and 2023 was below consensus because we expected a negative impact of monetary and especially fiscal tightening, our current 2023 forecast is well above consensus (Exhibit 2). \\nOur disagreement with the consensus is even more visible when we focus on recession \\nprobabilities. As shown in Exhibit 3, we estimate a 35% probability that the US \\neconomy enters recession over the next 12 months, well below the median of 65% among the forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey\\n and toward the bottom of \\nthe range. Exhibit 2: Our 2023 US Growth Forecast Is Now Well Above Consensus \\n0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0\\n0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0\\nJan-2022 Apr-2022 Jul-2022 Oct-2022GS\\nBloomberg ConsensusPercent change, year ago Percent change, year ago\\nUS 2023 Real GDP Growth Forecasts\\nSource: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research\\n16 November 2022 3Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst', metadata={'source': 'report.pdf', 'page': 2}), Document(page_content='Exhibit 3: We Think That a US Recession in the Next 12 Months Is Less Likely Than Most Other Forecasters \\n0102030405060708090100\\n0102030405060708090100\\n01 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0GS Forecast: 35%Percent Percent\\nNumber of ForecastersEstimated US Recession P robability (Next 12 Months),\\nWall Street Journal October 2022 Forecaster Survey\\nConsensus Median Forecast: 65%\\nSource: The Wall Street Journal, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research\\nWhy is our recession probability—while more than twice as high as the unconditional \\nprobability of entering recession in any given 12-month period—still clearly below 50%? \\nOne immediate reason is that the incoming activity data are nowhere close to \\nrecessionar y. The advance GDP report showed 2.6% (annualized) growth in Q3, \\nnonfarm payrolls grew 261k in Octobe r, and there were 225k initial jobless claims in the \\nweek of November 5. \\nMore fundamentall y, there are strong reasons to expect positive growth in coming \\nquarters. To be sure, the tightening in financial conditions is weighing heavily on \\ngrowth, to the tune of nearly 2pp at present. But real disposable personal income is \\nrebounding from the plunge seen in H1—when fiscal tightening and sharply higher \\ninflation took their toll—to a pace of 3%+over the next year (Exhibit 4). And while there \\nare risks on both sides, we think the real income upturn is likely to be the stronger force \\nas we move through 2023, especially because the financial conditions drag will likely \\ndiminish assuming Fed officials do not deliver dramatically more tightening than the \\nrates market is currently pricing. \\n16 November 2022 4Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst', metadata={'source': 'report.pdf', 'page': 3}), Document(page_content='Source:\\xa0J.P.\\xa0Morgan\\xa0Asset\\xa0Management.\\xa0Note:\\xa0The\\xa0left\\xa0bars\\xa0represent\\xa02022,\\xa0and\\xa0right\\xa0bars\\xa02023\\xa0estimates.2023\\xa0LTCMAS\\xa0PRESENT\\xa0IMPRESSIVE\\xa0EXPECTED\\xa0RETURNS\\nAnnualized\\xa0expected\\xa0return,\\xa0% \\n \\xa0STRONGER MARKETS \\nHere’s what the \\nbear market of\\t \\n2022 has delivered: \\tAs noted, a dramatic reset \\nin valuations—higher yields, lower stock multiples—has, in our view, created the most attractive entry point for a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds in over a decade. In fact, our long-term outlook for returns across asset classes are materially higher than they were just last year. \\nLONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS \\nPRESENT FAVORABLE EXPECTED RETURNS \\nForecasted annual return over the next 10-15 years, % \\n2022\\xa0LTCMAs Equities\\t Fixed\\xa0Income \\n9.8 10.1 2023\\xa0LTCMAs 7.9 6.9 6.8 6.5 \\n4.6 4.1 3.7\\t 3.9 2.6 2.1 \\nU.S.\\xa0Large\\xa0Cap EAFE\\xa0Equity EM\\xa0Equity Muni\\xa0Bonds U.S.\\xa0Agg\\xa0Bonds U.S.\\xa0HY\\xa0Bonds \\nAlternatives \\n9.9 \\n8.1 \\n5.8 5.7 5.0 3.6 \\nDiversified Private U.S.\\xa0Core \\nHedge\\xa0Funds Equity Real\\xa0Estate \\nSource: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of September 30, 2022. \\n34', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 33}), Document(page_content='shocks, which could affect the global economy via higher uncertainty, tighter financial \\nconditions, or negative effects on commodity supply. Some of these risks have \\ndiminished slightly as well. The Italian, Brazilian, and US midterm elections have come and gone without major market disruptions. Spreads on Italian government debt have diminished, Brazil may be headed toward a soft landing, and there is even a possibility that the US debt limit—arguably the biggest potential source of market disruption emanating from DC in 2023—will be resolved in the “lame-duck” session of Congress between now and year-end 2022. Moreover, the latest meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi promises to defuse at least some of the tensions between the US and China, which might also help to achieve a negotiated solution to the Russia-Ukraine war. \\nBut there are still plenty of risks that could return us to the exceptionally volatile environment of the first half of 2022. So far, a settlement in the Russia-Ukraine war does not seem close at hand, and the impact of the price cap on Russian oil is uncertain. The political instability in the Middle East—while far from a new feature of the geopolitical order—also has the potential to deal another blow to energy markets at a time when the supply-demand balance is already precarious. Thus, our cautiously optimistic global economic outlook remains fraught with substantial risks. \\n16 November 2022 21Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst', metadata={'source': 'report.pdf', 'page': 20})] \n",
"\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"history = user('what does GS think of the macro outlook?',history)"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 589
},
"id": "g3PRRJfdUquI",
"outputId": "e2024a62-23b3-4b7e-bf49-1796af857767"
},
"execution_count": 41,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"<IPython.core.display.HTML object>"
],
"text/html": [
"\n",
" <style>\n",
" pre {\n",
" white-space: pre-wrap;\n",
" }\n",
" </style>\n",
" "
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"metadata": {}
},
{
"output_type": "stream",
"name": "stdout",
"text": [
"AI: \n",
"Outlook 2023: \n",
"See the potential \n",
"Weak growth, stronger markets \n",
"\n",
"\n",
"Source: [Document(page_content='Outlook 2023: \\nSee the potential \\nWeaker growth, stronger markets', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 0}), Document(page_content='Contents\\n \\nINTRODUCTION \\nPgs. 4–6 \\nOut of the depths WEAKER GROWTH \\nPgs. 7–18 \\nThe consequences of \\nglobal policy tightening Pgs. 19–31 \\nWeakness across the global economy \\nSTRONGER MARKETS: VALUATION RESETS \\nPgs. 35–37 \\nBonds Pgs. 38–41 \\nStocks Pgs. 42–45 \\nAlternatives \\nCONCLUSION \\nPgs. 46–49 \\nFocus on your process \\nINVESTMENT PRODUCTS: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NO BANK GUARANTEE • MAY LOSE VALUE\\n \\nThe views expressed herein are based on current conditions, subject to change and may differ from other JPMorgan Chase \\n& Co. affiliates and employees. The views and strategies may not be appropriate for all investors. Investors should speak to their financial representatives before engaging in any investment product or strategy. This material should not be regarded as research or as a J.P. Morgan Research Report. Outlooks and past performance are not reliable indicators of future results. Please read additional regulatory status, disclosures, disclaimers, risks and other important information at the end of this material. \\n4', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 3}), Document(page_content='Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle Is Different \\nGlobal growth slowed sharply through 2022 on a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and \\nmonetary tightening, China’s ongoing Covid restrictions and property slump, and the \\nenergy supply shock resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war. We expect the world to continue growing at a below-trend pace of 1 .8% in 2023, with a mild recession in Europe and a bumpy reopening in China but also important pockets of resilience in the US and some EM early hikers, such as Brazil. \\nExhibit 1: Slow Growth in 2023, But Above-Consensus on the US \\nPotential\\nGS GS GS GS\\n1.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.8\\n3.3 3.1 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 1.5 0.0 -0.5 1.1\\nGermany 1.8 1.6 -0.6 -0.7 1.4 1.3 -0.3 -0.9 1.3\\nFrance 2.5 2.5 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.3 -0.1 1.1\\nItaly 3.8 3.5 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.8\\nSpain 4.6 4.5 0.6 1.0 2.1 2.0 0.6 0.2 1.3\\n1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.5 0.8\\n4.4 4.2 -1.2 -0.5 0.9 1.1 -0.8 -1.6 1.4\\n3.2 3.3 0.9 0.6 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.7 1.6\\n3.0 3.3 4.5 4.8 5.3 4.9 5.5 4.2 4.2\\n6.9 7.1 5.9 5.8 6.5 6.6 7.5 7.2 6.0\\n2.9 2.7 1.2 0.8 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.0 1.9\\n-3.3 -4.0 -1.3 -3.2 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.2\\n2.9 2.9 1.8 1.8 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.8 2.6Q4/Q4 Next 4 Quarters\\n2022Q4-2023Q3\\nGS2022.. 2023.. 2024..Annual Average\\nConsensus Consensus Consensus2023\\nGS\\nBrazil\\nRussia\\nWorld\\nNote: All forecasts calculated on calendar year basis. 2022-202 4 are GS forecasts. Potential growth is the medi an of GS estima tes for 2023-25 for the US, Japan and \\nCanada, our long-run esti mate for the Euro pean economies and 2023 for EM economies. IMF forecasts used for India 2023 and 2024 consensus when q uarters not \\navailable in Bloomberg. The global growth aggregat es use market FX country weights.Canada\\nChina\\nIndiaJapan\\nUKUSReal GDP Growth\\nPercent Change yoy\\nEuro Area\\nSource: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research\\n16 November 2022 2Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst', metadata={'source': 'report.pdf', 'page': 1}), Document(page_content='shocks, which could affect the global economy via higher uncertainty, tighter financial \\nconditions, or negative effects on commodity supply. Some of these risks have \\ndiminished slightly as well. The Italian, Brazilian, and US midterm elections have come and gone without major market disruptions. Spreads on Italian government debt have diminished, Brazil may be headed toward a soft landing, and there is even a possibility that the US debt limit—arguably the biggest potential source of market disruption emanating from DC in 2023—will be resolved in the “lame-duck” session of Congress between now and year-end 2022. Moreover, the latest meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi promises to defuse at least some of the tensions between the US and China, which might also help to achieve a negotiated solution to the Russia-Ukraine war. \\nBut there are still plenty of risks that could return us to the exceptionally volatile environment of the first half of 2022. So far, a settlement in the Russia-Ukraine war does not seem close at hand, and the impact of the price cap on Russian oil is uncertain. The political instability in the Middle East—while far from a new feature of the geopolitical order—also has the potential to deal another blow to energy markets at a time when the supply-demand balance is already precarious. Thus, our cautiously optimistic global economic outlook remains fraught with substantial risks. \\n16 November 2022 21Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst', metadata={'source': 'report.pdf', 'page': 20})] \n",
"\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"history = user('summarise the 2 banks outlook and generate an investment recommendation',history)"
],
"metadata": {
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
"height": 410
},
"id": "pqtwig1KbaGV",
"outputId": "688c9f60-a2f2-49d9-c910-dcf2d788c487"
},
"execution_count": 42,
"outputs": [
{
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"AI: \n",
"Outlook 2023: \n",
"See the potential \n",
"Weaker growth, stronger markets \n",
"\n",
"\n",
"Source: [Document(page_content='Contents\\n \\nINTRODUCTION \\nPgs. 4–6 \\nOut of the depths WEAKER GROWTH \\nPgs. 7–18 \\nThe consequences of \\nglobal policy tightening Pgs. 19–31 \\nWeakness across the global economy \\nSTRONGER MARKETS: VALUATION RESETS \\nPgs. 35–37 \\nBonds Pgs. 38–41 \\nStocks Pgs. 42–45 \\nAlternatives \\nCONCLUSION \\nPgs. 46–49 \\nFocus on your process \\nINVESTMENT PRODUCTS: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NO BANK GUARANTEE • MAY LOSE VALUE\\n \\nThe views expressed herein are based on current conditions, subject to change and may differ from other JPMorgan Chase \\n& Co. affiliates and employees. The views and strategies may not be appropriate for all investors. Investors should speak to their financial representatives before engaging in any investment product or strategy. This material should not be regarded as research or as a J.P. Morgan Research Report. Outlooks and past performance are not reliable indicators of future results. Please read additional regulatory status, disclosures, disclaimers, risks and other important information at the end of this material. \\n4', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 3}), Document(page_content='INTRODUCTION \\nAs we move into 2023, investors still have \\nmany difficult questions to consider. \\nHow much further \\ncould interest rates rise? \\nWhen will inflation \\ncome back to earth? \\nIs a recession inevitable,\\n \\nand how bad could it get? \\n6', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 5}), Document(page_content='Outlook 2023: \\nSee the potential \\nWeaker growth, stronger markets', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 0}), Document(page_content='Foreword\\n \\nEvery year presents unique challenges. In 2020, together we confronted a global \\npandemic and lockdown. In 2021, global economies slowly reopened as parts of the world returned to more normal patterns of life. \\n2022 has brought new headwinds, some we haven’t seen in over 40 years. As inflation proved more resilient than anticipated, rising to highs we haven’t seen \\nin decades, central banks aggressively raised rates to slow its progress. With both stocks and bonds suffering significant losses, 2022 delivered one of the worst years ever for balanced portfolios. \\nFrom a geopolitical perspective, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused great human \\nsuffering and disrupted global markets. \\nTo prepare for the year ahead, we rely on our world-class Global Investment \\nStrategy Group to help us identify both the risks and opportunities that investors may face. Despite the headwinds to growth, they see the potential for stronger markets in 2023 and beyond. \\nIn times like these, we rely on each other and on the relationships we have \\ncreated over time. We are honored to stand by your side. \\nThank you for your continued trust and confidence in J.P. Morgan. Sincerely, \\nDavid Frame \\nCEO, U.S. Private Bank \\nMartin Marron \\nCEO, International Private Bank \\n2', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 1})] \n",
"\n"
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"source": [
"## OpenAI"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "IeojV0BCd5FK"
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{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"qa = ConversationalRetrievalChain.from_llm(ChatOpenAI(temperature=0, model_name=\"gpt-3.5-turbo\"),\n",
" vectordb.as_retriever(),\n",
" condense_question_prompt = CONDENSE_QUESTION_PROMPT,\n",
" qa_prompt = QA_PROMPT,\n",
" return_source_documents=True)"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "GfhoukKQd5Bq",
"colab": {
"base_uri": "https://localhost:8080/",
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{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"history = []\n",
"def user(user_message, history):\n",
" # Get response from QA chain\n",
" response = qa({\"question\": user_message, \"chat_history\": history})\n",
" # Append user message and response to chat history\n",
" history.append((user_message, response[\"answer\"]))\n",
"\n",
" print('AI:',response['answer'],'\\n\\n')\n",
" print('Source:',response['source_documents'],'\\n')\n",
"\n",
" return history"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "MBMDguZmUJDO",
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"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"history = user('what does JPM think of the macro outlook?',history)"
],
"metadata": {
"id": "hm81B_fdUIp9",
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"AI: JPM thinks that the US is likely to avoid a recession and that growth will remain at a below-potential pace of about 1% in 2023. They estimate a 35% probability that the US economy enters recession over the next 12 months, which is well below the median of 65% among the forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey. JPM believes that there are strong reasons to expect positive growth in the coming quarters, despite the tightening in financial conditions, and that the real income upturn is likely to be the stronger force as we move through 2023. However, there are still substantial risks that could return us to the exceptionally volatile environment of the first half of 2022. \n",
"\n",
"\n",
"Source: [Document(page_content='US Likely to Avoid Recession \\nIn the past year, US growth has slowed to a below-potential pace of about 1% because \\nof a diminishing reopening boost, declining real disposable income (driven by fiscal \\nnormalization and high inflation), and aggressive monetary tightening. In our forecast, growth remains at roughly this pace in 2023. Unlike a year ago, when our forecast for both 2022 and 2023 was below consensus because we expected a negative impact of monetary and especially fiscal tightening, our current 2023 forecast is well above consensus (Exhibit 2). \\nOur disagreement with the consensus is even more visible when we focus on recession \\nprobabilities. As shown in Exhibit 3, we estimate a 35% probability that the US \\neconomy enters recession over the next 12 months, well below the median of 65% among the forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey\\n and toward the bottom of \\nthe range. Exhibit 2: Our 2023 US Growth Forecast Is Now Well Above Consensus \\n0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0\\n0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0\\nJan-2022 Apr-2022 Jul-2022 Oct-2022GS\\nBloomberg ConsensusPercent change, year ago Percent change, year ago\\nUS 2023 Real GDP Growth Forecasts\\nSource: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research\\n16 November 2022 3Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst', metadata={'source': 'report.pdf', 'page': 2}), Document(page_content='Exhibit 3: We Think That a US Recession in the Next 12 Months Is Less Likely Than Most Other Forecasters \\n0102030405060708090100\\n0102030405060708090100\\n01 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0GS Forecast: 35%Percent Percent\\nNumber of ForecastersEstimated US Recession P robability (Next 12 Months),\\nWall Street Journal October 2022 Forecaster Survey\\nConsensus Median Forecast: 65%\\nSource: The Wall Street Journal, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research\\nWhy is our recession probability—while more than twice as high as the unconditional \\nprobability of entering recession in any given 12-month period—still clearly below 50%? \\nOne immediate reason is that the incoming activity data are nowhere close to \\nrecessionar y. The advance GDP report showed 2.6% (annualized) growth in Q3, \\nnonfarm payrolls grew 261k in Octobe r, and there were 225k initial jobless claims in the \\nweek of November 5. \\nMore fundamentall y, there are strong reasons to expect positive growth in coming \\nquarters. To be sure, the tightening in financial conditions is weighing heavily on \\ngrowth, to the tune of nearly 2pp at present. But real disposable personal income is \\nrebounding from the plunge seen in H1—when fiscal tightening and sharply higher \\ninflation took their toll—to a pace of 3%+over the next year (Exhibit 4). And while there \\nare risks on both sides, we think the real income upturn is likely to be the stronger force \\nas we move through 2023, especially because the financial conditions drag will likely \\ndiminish assuming Fed officials do not deliver dramatically more tightening than the \\nrates market is currently pricing. \\n16 November 2022 4Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst', metadata={'source': 'report.pdf', 'page': 3}), Document(page_content='Source:\\xa0J.P.\\xa0Morgan\\xa0Asset\\xa0Management.\\xa0Note:\\xa0The\\xa0left\\xa0bars\\xa0represent\\xa02022,\\xa0and\\xa0right\\xa0bars\\xa02023\\xa0estimates.2023\\xa0LTCMAS\\xa0PRESENT\\xa0IMPRESSIVE\\xa0EXPECTED\\xa0RETURNS\\nAnnualized\\xa0expected\\xa0return,\\xa0% \\n \\xa0STRONGER MARKETS \\nHere’s what the \\nbear market of\\t \\n2022 has delivered: \\tAs noted, a dramatic reset \\nin valuations—higher yields, lower stock multiples—has, in our view, created the most attractive entry point for a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds in over a decade. In fact, our long-term outlook for returns across asset classes are materially higher than they were just last year. \\nLONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS \\nPRESENT FAVORABLE EXPECTED RETURNS \\nForecasted annual return over the next 10-15 years, % \\n2022\\xa0LTCMAs Equities\\t Fixed\\xa0Income \\n9.8 10.1 2023\\xa0LTCMAs 7.9 6.9 6.8 6.5 \\n4.6 4.1 3.7\\t 3.9 2.6 2.1 \\nU.S.\\xa0Large\\xa0Cap EAFE\\xa0Equity EM\\xa0Equity Muni\\xa0Bonds U.S.\\xa0Agg\\xa0Bonds U.S.\\xa0HY\\xa0Bonds \\nAlternatives \\n9.9 \\n8.1 \\n5.8 5.7 5.0 3.6 \\nDiversified Private U.S.\\xa0Core \\nHedge\\xa0Funds Equity Real\\xa0Estate \\nSource: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of September 30, 2022. \\n34', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 33}), Document(page_content='shocks, which could affect the global economy via higher uncertainty, tighter financial \\nconditions, or negative effects on commodity supply. Some of these risks have \\ndiminished slightly as well. The Italian, Brazilian, and US midterm elections have come and gone without major market disruptions. Spreads on Italian government debt have diminished, Brazil may be headed toward a soft landing, and there is even a possibility that the US debt limit—arguably the biggest potential source of market disruption emanating from DC in 2023—will be resolved in the “lame-duck” session of Congress between now and year-end 2022. Moreover, the latest meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi promises to defuse at least some of the tensions between the US and China, which might also help to achieve a negotiated solution to the Russia-Ukraine war. \\nBut there are still plenty of risks that could return us to the exceptionally volatile environment of the first half of 2022. So far, a settlement in the Russia-Ukraine war does not seem close at hand, and the impact of the price cap on Russian oil is uncertain. The political instability in the Middle East—while far from a new feature of the geopolitical order—also has the potential to deal another blow to energy markets at a time when the supply-demand balance is already precarious. Thus, our cautiously optimistic global economic outlook remains fraught with substantial risks. \\n16 November 2022 21Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst', metadata={'source': 'report.pdf', 'page': 20})] \n",
"\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"history = user('what does GS think of the macro outlook?',history)"
],
"metadata": {
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"height": 463
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"id": "ss6CxEz2Zdi8",
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"AI: Goldman Sachs' perspective on the macro outlook is cautiously optimistic but still fraught with substantial risks. While some risks have diminished, such as the Italian, Brazilian, and US midterm elections passing without major market disruptions and the latest meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi promising to defuse tensions between the US and China, there are still plenty of risks that could return the global economy to the exceptionally volatile environment of the first half of 2022. These risks include the Russia-Ukraine war, the impact of the price cap on Russian oil, and political instability in the Middle East. Overall, weaker growth is expected but stronger markets are still possible. \n",
"\n",
"\n",
"Source: [Document(page_content='Outlook 2023: \\nSee the potential \\nWeaker growth, stronger markets', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 0}), Document(page_content='shocks, which could affect the global economy via higher uncertainty, tighter financial \\nconditions, or negative effects on commodity supply. Some of these risks have \\ndiminished slightly as well. The Italian, Brazilian, and US midterm elections have come and gone without major market disruptions. Spreads on Italian government debt have diminished, Brazil may be headed toward a soft landing, and there is even a possibility that the US debt limit—arguably the biggest potential source of market disruption emanating from DC in 2023—will be resolved in the “lame-duck” session of Congress between now and year-end 2022. Moreover, the latest meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi promises to defuse at least some of the tensions between the US and China, which might also help to achieve a negotiated solution to the Russia-Ukraine war. \\nBut there are still plenty of risks that could return us to the exceptionally volatile environment of the first half of 2022. So far, a settlement in the Russia-Ukraine war does not seem close at hand, and the impact of the price cap on Russian oil is uncertain. The political instability in the Middle East—while far from a new feature of the geopolitical order—also has the potential to deal another blow to energy markets at a time when the supply-demand balance is already precarious. Thus, our cautiously optimistic global economic outlook remains fraught with substantial risks. \\n16 November 2022 21Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst', metadata={'source': 'report.pdf', 'page': 20}), Document(page_content='Foreword\\n \\nEvery year presents unique challenges. In 2020, together we confronted a global \\npandemic and lockdown. In 2021, global economies slowly reopened as parts of the world returned to more normal patterns of life. \\n2022 has brought new headwinds, some we haven’t seen in over 40 years. As inflation proved more resilient than anticipated, rising to highs we haven’t seen \\nin decades, central banks aggressively raised rates to slow its progress. With both stocks and bonds suffering significant losses, 2022 delivered one of the worst years ever for balanced portfolios. \\nFrom a geopolitical perspective, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused great human \\nsuffering and disrupted global markets. \\nTo prepare for the year ahead, we rely on our world-class Global Investment \\nStrategy Group to help us identify both the risks and opportunities that investors may face. Despite the headwinds to growth, they see the potential for stronger markets in 2023 and beyond. \\nIn times like these, we rely on each other and on the relationships we have \\ncreated over time. We are honored to stand by your side. \\nThank you for your continued trust and confidence in J.P. Morgan. Sincerely, \\nDavid Frame \\nCEO, U.S. Private Bank \\nMartin Marron \\nCEO, International Private Bank \\n2', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 1}), Document(page_content='Our mission \\nThe Global Investment Strategy Group \\nprovides industry-leading insights and investment advice to help our clients achieve their long-term goals. They draw on the extensive knowledge and experience of the Group’s economists, investment strategists and asset-class strategists to provide a unique perspective across the global financial markets. \\n49', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 48})] \n",
"\n"
]
}
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"source": [
"history = user('summarise the 2 banks outlook and generate an investment recommendation',history)"
],
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"AI: Based on the outlooks of JPM and GS, the recommended investments in the macro environment for 2023 include U.S. stocks, healthcare, quality cash flow-generating tech and tech-related companies, industrial companies, and small- and mid-cap companies. JPM and GS expect mega-cap technology stocks to underperform and small-cap stocks to outperform. Emerging markets outside of China, such as Brazilian equities and South Korea's exposure to the semiconductor industry, could offer some interesting trading opportunities. Core fixed income now offers the potential for protection, yield, and capital appreciation. As the cycle progresses, there may be an opportunity to add to most emerging markets in 2023. Overall, the outlook suggests a weaker growth but stronger markets, with a dramatic reset in valuations creating the most attractive entry point for stocks and bonds in over a decade. \n",
"\n",
"\n",
"Source: [Document(page_content='Highlights from the 2023 Outlook\\n \\n1.\\n The best in a decade. A dramatic reset in valuations \\nhas, in our view, created the most attractive entry point for stocks and bonds in over a decade. \\n2.\\n Bad news, good news. The bad news: We think a \\nrecession is likely in 2023. The good news: Central banks should stop hiking and inflation will likely fall. \\n3.\\n Bonds are back. Core fixed income now offers the \\npotential for protection, yield and capital appreciation.\\n \\n4.\\n Reversal of fortunes. We expect mega-cap \\n \\ntechnology stocks to underperform and small cap stocks to outperform. \\n5. Real money. The era of underinvestment in the real economy is over. \\n3', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 2}), Document(page_content='STRONGER MARKETS \\nEmerging markets outside of China could offer some \\ninteresting trading opportunities. Brazilian equities seem attractive on a valuation basis, and we like South Korea’s exposure to the semiconductor industry. Over the longer term, structural trends such as food scarcity and reliance on oil (despite progress toward the clean energy transition) will likely offset idiosyncratic risks in regions such as the Middle East and Latin America. \\nAs the cycle progresses, we may find an opportunity \\nto add to most emerging markets in 2023. \\nOn a regional basis, we prefer U.S. stocks, which \\ntend to be more insulated from global downturns. \\nOn a sector level, we prefer healthcare. Revenues aren’t \\nas cyclical as they are in other sectors, and valuations seem reasonable. We also see opportunity in quality, cash flow–generating tech and tech-related companies that were hit by higher interest rates. Industrial companies provide some inflation protection and benefit from the tailwind of global infrastructure and defense investment. Dividend growth and value companies could be well positioned, given the uncertain macro environment and higher interest rates. A trend that we think will continue into 2023: Under-performance of the mega-cap tech leaders of the last cycle relative to the broad market. \\nWe also think investors \\nshould now consider small- and mid-cap companies. \\nGenerally, smaller companies tend to grow faster than large \\ncaps, benefit from merger and acquisition activity, and could be somewhat insulated from a more stringent regulatory environment. \\nValuations have fallen to recessionary levels and may \\nalready reflect a material decline in earnings. During recessions, small- and mid-cap companies only underperform large-cap stocks by ~5%, and they outperform large-cap stocks by 30% in the first year of the recovery. We think the time to add is now. \\nAs the year progresses, we will be on the lookout for other \\ndislocated pockets of the market. \\n41', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 40}), Document(page_content='Outlook 2023: \\nSee the potential \\nWeaker growth, stronger markets', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 0}), Document(page_content='Contents\\n \\nINTRODUCTION \\nPgs. 4–6 \\nOut of the depths WEAKER GROWTH \\nPgs. 7–18 \\nThe consequences of \\nglobal policy tightening Pgs. 19–31 \\nWeakness across the global economy \\nSTRONGER MARKETS: VALUATION RESETS \\nPgs. 35–37 \\nBonds Pgs. 38–41 \\nStocks Pgs. 42–45 \\nAlternatives \\nCONCLUSION \\nPgs. 46–49 \\nFocus on your process \\nINVESTMENT PRODUCTS: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NO BANK GUARANTEE • MAY LOSE VALUE\\n \\nThe views expressed herein are based on current conditions, subject to change and may differ from other JPMorgan Chase \\n& Co. affiliates and employees. The views and strategies may not be appropriate for all investors. Investors should speak to their financial representatives before engaging in any investment product or strategy. This material should not be regarded as research or as a J.P. Morgan Research Report. Outlooks and past performance are not reliable indicators of future results. Please read additional regulatory status, disclosures, disclaimers, risks and other important information at the end of this material. \\n4', metadata={'source': 'outlook-2023.pdf', 'page': 3})] \n",
"\n"
]
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{
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"source": [],
"metadata": {
"id": "d4lNWhg_g8f6"
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